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Put another log on the fire, Almanac predicts brrrisk winter |
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By Debbie Gardner
PRIME Editor
This winter could be snowier than normal. Or it might be a bit dryer than past winters.
It's hard to tell exactly, given that the Pioneer Valley lies smack dab in the middle of the dividing line between two weather regions.
But one thing's pretty certain it's going to be cold, with a good portion of December, January and February registering temperatures below the freezing mark.
That's the word Reminder Publications received from Janice Stillman, editor of the Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA), during a recent phone interview from their offices in Portsmouth, N.H.
"What most of the people will want to know is that it will be colder than average," Stillman said. "This is especially important when people are making contracts [for oil and other fuels] and preparing their homes for winter."
We called Stillman to follow up on the recent release of the 2010 edition of the OFA. Our goal was to get the lowdown on this 218-year-old American icon's predictions for local snowfall and holiday weather, as well as the OFA's take on global temperature trends.
We also wanted to know why that dividing line of dry and snowy was running right through a good part of Western Massachusetts .
"A few years ago our meteorologist suggested that, because of the change in the climatological movement of weather systems, we redraw our weather regions," Stillman explained. "For example, New England used to be region one, [now] parts are in both regions one and two."
Stillman said we should expect to see snow this winter, but not as much as areas closer to the coast.
This change in New England's designations, she said, reflects the ever-evolving nature of the OFA's weather predictions, which relies not on folklore but on a triad that includes solar science - the study of sun spots; climatology - the study of prevailing conditions over time; and meteorology - to "predict temperature and precipitation as deviations from the norm" for 16 regions of the country.
The formulas that determine the deviations are calculated by a consulting meteorologist, Michael Steinberg, who has been forecasting for the OFA since 1995.
According to Stillman, the precipitation and temperature norms Steinberg used this year are based on 30 years of observing and recording patters across the country. These norms will shift shortly as meteorology rolls from a cycle that referenced data from1971-2000 to one that relies on observations from 1980-2010.
And this shift isn't the only change that will affect the OFA's short- and long-range weather predictions. Stillman said the current pattern of sun spots - magnetic storms on the surface of the sun have shown very little activity since January 2008. A drop in sun spot activity traditionally indicates a period of cooling for the earth's temperatures. Most sun spot cycles last on average, she said, about 11 years.
"The possible mitigating factor [in terms of temperature dips] is greenhouse gases," Stillman said.
So, when will it snow?
Between the discussions of sun spots and 30 year temperature cycles, Stillman shared the OFA's predictions for our region's winter.
She said that though precipitation and snowfall should be below normal, areas of Region One - which we straddle - could see snow as early as the first week in November.
"Now, that doesn't mean it will be snowing in your area," she said. "But it will, if you usually get snow early." (Hilltowns take note).
And it will keep snowing on and off all winter.
"You'll have snow around Thanksgiving, over Christmas and rain to snow showers on New Year's," she quoted from the pages of the almanac.
But most importantly, she said, based on 30 years of winter data, after New Year's it's going to get - and stay - cold.
"It will be very cold in January, with only brief thaws," she said.
She said the OFA predicted snow the third week in January, the third week in February (right around school vacation), snowshowers intermittently through March, even some snow in April.
"But remember, April snow lasts no longer than water on a duck's back," she said.
By the third week in April, we should enter a warm period, she said.
"We have an 80 percent accuracy for predicting temperature and predicting deviations from the norm," Stillman said of the OFA's forecasts.
"Our temperatures may be accurate, but we may be off on precipitation," she added.
For forecasts and more, get the book
Stillman said that within the OFA's pages forecasts are broken down into groups of days so readers can check exact periods of time.
"From the first to the fourth of November, it should be sunny, the fifth to the eighth, snow," she read from the book's pages.
These forecasts, plus astronomical observations, planting guides, animal husbandry tables, recipes, interesting stories and this year a section on green living tips, make up the information that has kept the OFA "useful and pleasant" for its readers since 1792, Stillman said.
The 2010 edition of the Old Farmer's Almanac is available at bookstores, newsstands, home centers, supermarkets and more locations now. A digital version is available online at www.almanac.com, and copies can be ordered by calling 1-800-729-9265.
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