AMHERST – With what will be a clear vacancy for governor in the 2022 election, Western Massachusetts researchers feel the odds strongly favor the next person to lead the state being a Democrat.

Gov. Charlie Baker and Lt. Gov Karyn Polito announced jointly on Dec. 1 that they would not seek reelection and their second terms would be their last. Likewise, Polito indicated she would not run for governor.

“After several months of discussion with our families, we have decided not to seek re-election in 2022. This was an extremely difficult decision for us. We love the work, and we especially respect and admire the people of this wonderful commonwealth. Serving as governor and lieutenant governor of Massachusetts has been the most challenging and fulfilling jobs we’ve ever had. We will forever be grateful to the people of this state for giving us this great honor,” Baker and Polito said in a statement.

The two cited their desire to continue pandemic recovery, claiming a campaign would distract from those efforts.

“If we were to run, it would be a distraction that would potentially get in the way of many of the things we should be working on for everyone in Massachusetts. We want to focus on recovery, not on the grudge matches political campaigns can devolve into,” their statement said.

Early contenders in the gubernatorial election include Republican Geoff Diehl and Democrats Danielle Allen, a Harvard University professor, former state Sen. Ben Downing, and state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz.

While she has made no announcement, there is strong speculation that Attorney General Maura Healy would enter the fray.  The State House News Service reported on Dec. 1 that Healey said she would “save that for another day” when asked about her plans during an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, now President Joe Biden’s secretary of labor, has been a popular name in state and national media speculation.

The announcement from Baker and Polito comes shortly after a University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll determined that Baker had overcome a pandemic-driven dip in his approval ratings and was perceived to be the early front-runner if he pursued a third term. The poll, led by Tatishe Nteta, poll director and associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst, and associate poll directors and political science professors Raymond La Raja and Jesse Rhodes, was conducted from Nov. 9 to 16.

Polito, however, did not carry Baker’s popularity, according to the poll.

With Baker’s decision to walk away, “things change dramatically,” according to Rhodes. “In an open race, voters tend to revert to partisanship and ideology in deciding how to vote. In this case, Democrats, and particularly Attorney General Healey, have significant advantages.”

Nteta added the poll results suggest that Healey has been lying in wait in anticipation of Baker’s decision. She is the preferred candidate among Democrats and would have also would have held an advantage over Polito had she decided to run for governor.

“The Democratic Party has likely been hoping that Gov. Baker would follow political convention and decide against pursuing a third term,” Nteta said. “In a hypothetical matchup between Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito and Attorney General Maura Healey, Healey holds a substantial lead over Polito and is the preferred choice of groups traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party. Our results suggest that Healey was wise to take a wait and see approach, and she will likely announce her candidacy as she is the clear frontrunner in a matchup with Polito.”

Unlike Baker, Diehl’s political position is more directly aligned with former President Donald Trump, who recently endorsed the former state representative. La Raja and Nteta noted that while Baker has enjoyed relatively high ratings across the political and socio-economic spectrum, his popularity among Republicans was problematic.

“Gov. Baker has a problem with his supposed base of voters in the Republican Party,” Nteta said. “When given the opportunity, conservatives, Republicans and Trump voters all express their disdain and disappointment with the governor’s leadership. While this may not have affected Baker in the general election, he may have had an issue connecting to Republican voters in a primary if he chose to run in 2022.”

That theory was supported by the statement released by Massachusetts Republican Party Chairman Jim Lyons in response to Baker’s announcement, which read, “We're turning a new page here in Massachusetts. Our party remains committed to the America-First agenda advocated by President Donald J. Trump, and it’s clear to me that Charlie Baker was shaken by President Trump’s endorsement of another Republican candidate in Geoff Diehl.

“Our party remains committed to the strong conservative values of freedom, individual liberty, and personal responsibility. We look forward to working with President Trump as we continue to rebuild the Massachusetts Republican Party.”

For La Raja, this sentiment among Trump-supporting Republicans in Massachusetts and nationwide would prevent Baker from successfully pursuing national office, including a run for the presidency in 2024.

“Charlie Baker has pulled off something fairly extraordinary for a Republican these days: he gets high approval ratings across groups, including people of color, as well as women voters and across socioeconomic groups,” La Raja said. “He would have been in an enviable position if he sought a third term – he is liked by voters across virtually all groups, and with plenty of money to circulate throughout the state. That would have been a double-barreled challenge for anyone choosing to compete against him.

“But, despite his popularity in the Bay State, I don’t see prospects for Baker launching a presidential bid in 2024. Voters may love him here, but the national Republican base will not let him get past the gate, even after a plausible good showing in the New Hampshire primary.”