School enrollment projected to decline over next decade

| Sarah Heinonen
sarah@thereminder.com

Category:

Estimated declines in school enrollment.
Photo credit: Channel 15 Public Access

WEST SPRINGFIELD – John Sullivan from the New England School Development Council (NESDEC) presented the non-profit organization’s findings on a demographic study and enrollment projection to the West Springfield School Committee at its meeting on Dec. 10.

NESDEC created a 10-year projection of school enrollment figures based on U.S. Census Bureau data as well as data from the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Schools, information on in-town construction and information from realtors.

Within the next decade, Sullivan expects a population decrease of approximately 1,529 residents in West Springfield.

“That estimate indicates there will tend to be relatively low numbers continuing with that 24 and under age-group,” Sullivan said of the expected change in the level of young people in town.

Sullivan said baby boomers are downsizing, and therefore competing with millennials for apartments and condos. Meanwhile, he said, millennials have been slow to buy houses and begin families, largely due to college debt.

Single-family home sales are on the rise in West Springfield but the inventory is low, according to the data NESDEC compiled. Sullivan said this will increase the average price of single-family homes – currently at $225,000 – pricing many “millennials – potentially child-rearing parents” out of the West Springfield market. For these reasons, school enrollment is expected to continue to decline at a rate of 2.3 percent by 2027.

Acting Assistant Superintendent Kevin McQuillan gave an update on the Coburn School project. He said the design development drawings, specifications, estimates and descriptive narrative have been submitted to the Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA). McQuillan called the submission “an enormous document,” and said the MSBA will check to make sure the timeline and budget are on target.

While he said the project is currently on target and within budget, there are plans to identify “value-engineering opportunities,” to stay within budget as the project progresses.

The Innovation Pathways program received a $50,000 grant. They have also applied for a grant for “Project Lead the Way,” which develops a career path in biomedical science. A decision on that grant is expected by March 3.

Superintendent Michael Richard said the district’s participation in the Westfield Promise program is currently under development.

The Westfield Promise is an early college program for juniors and seniors run by Westfield State University (WSU). Other schools in the Westfield program include Westfield High School, Holyoke High School and Commerce High School.

If West Springfield participates, the curriculum would be taught by West Springfield High School (WSHS) and WSU faculty. Students would earn dual enrollment credits.

Richard identified concerns regarding the program, including the cost of transportation and textbooks, special education and English language learner support, staffing implications, questions about the program of studies and changes to the WSHS schedule. Richard said currently, students would only be able to participate in afternoon classes because the high school has a rotating schedule in the morning.

A soft roll-out of the program is planned in the 2020-2021 school year for select students of the class of 2021. The next meeting on the subject is scheduled for March 2020.

Richard said that the state will be distributing 1.4 billion dollars in additional chapter 70 aid through the Student Opportunity Act, however, the amount slated for West Springfield is not yet known.

There are strings attached to the money, Richard said. Districts must establish a three-year plan focused on special education students, English language learners, and economically disadvantaged students. The plans, to be approved by DESE, are due April 1.

Mayor Will Reichelt presented committee member Carly Santaniello with a plaque recognizing her work on the committee, as it was her final meeting.